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Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abel, J., Rıch, R., Song, J., & Tracy, J. (2016). The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 31, 533–550. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
  • Agliari, A., Massaro, D., Pecora, N., & Spelta, A. (2017). Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(7), 1587–1619. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12425
  • Akdere, Ç., & Büyükboyacı, M. (2018). Davranışsal İktisat ve Sınırlı Rasyonellik Varsayımı. In İktisatta Davranışsal Yaklaşımlar (2. Baskı, pp. 107–139). Imge Kitabevi.
  • Akerlof, G. A. (2002). Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior. The American Economic Review, 92(3), 411–433.
  • Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton University Press.
  • Aklan, N. A., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008). Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 21–41.
  • Albayrak, Ş. G. (2022). Geleneksel İktisattan Davranışsal İktisada: Tüketici Karar ve Tercihleri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 48, 159–170.
  • Amato, J. D., & Laubach, T. (2003). Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy. European Economic Review, 47(5), 791–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00270-2
  • Anderson, R. D. J., Becker, R., & Osborn, D. R. (2010). Heterogeneity in Consumers ’ Learning to Forecast Inflation (Economic Research).
  • Anufriev, M., & Hommes, C. (2012). Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments. 4(4), 35–64.
  • Assenza, T., Bao, T., Hommes, C., & Massaro, D. (2014). Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. Research in Experimental Economics, 17(320278), 11–70. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-230620140000017002
  • Basılgan, M. (2021). İktisadi Psikoloji II. Divan Kitabevi.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech, At the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Bonham, C. S., & Cohen, R. H. (2001). To aggregate, pool, or neither: Testing the rational-expectations hypothesis using survey data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(3), 278–291. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500101681019936
  • Brada, J. C., Kubíček, J., Kutan, A. M., & Tomšík, V. (2015). Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics. Eastern European Economics, 53(5), 357–376. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1089733
  • Branch, W. A. (2004). The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. The Economic Journal, 114, 592–621.
  • Branch, W. A. (2007). Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(1), 245–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.11.002
  • Bräuning, C., & van der Cruijsen, C. (2019). Learning dynamics in the formation of European inflation expectations. Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 122–135. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2553
  • Brito, S., Carriere-Swallow, Y., & Gruss, B. (2018). Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 18, Issue 24). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339718.001
  • Bryan, M. F., & Venkatu, G. (2001). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women. November 2001, 0–3.
  • Bryan, M., & Venkatu, G. (2001). The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys. In Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Commentary Research Department.
  • Bullard, J. (2016). Inflation Expectations Are Important to Central Bankers, Too. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org
  • Calabria M. A. (2016). Behavioral Economics and FED Policymaking. Cato Journal, 36(3), 573–587.
  • Camerer, C. F. (1999). Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(19), 10575–10577.
  • Capistrán, C., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 113–134.
  • Carroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 269–298.
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197–232.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018). The formation of expectations, inflation, and the Phillips curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 56, 1447–1491. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171300
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
  • Croushore, D. (2008). An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data. In Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1677
  • Curtin, R. (2005). Inflation Expectations: Theoretical Models and Empirical Tests. Ocean Modelling, 22(3), 1361–1369.
  • Curtin, R. T. (2022). A New Theory of Expectations. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 0123456789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-022-00074-w
  • D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., & Weber, M. (2022). What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations? In National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series (29825). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4056779
  • D’Amico, S., & Orphanides, A. (2008). Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting. In Finance and Economics Discussion Series (Issue 56). https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2008.56
  • De Grauwe, P. (2012). Lectures on behavioral macroeconomics. In Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics (Issue November). https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcmxp1g
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Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abel, J., Rıch, R., Song, J., & Tracy, J. (2016). The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 31, 533–550. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
  • Agliari, A., Massaro, D., Pecora, N., & Spelta, A. (2017). Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(7), 1587–1619. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12425
  • Akdere, Ç., & Büyükboyacı, M. (2018). Davranışsal İktisat ve Sınırlı Rasyonellik Varsayımı. In İktisatta Davranışsal Yaklaşımlar (2. Baskı, pp. 107–139). Imge Kitabevi.
  • Akerlof, G. A. (2002). Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior. The American Economic Review, 92(3), 411–433.
  • Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton University Press.
  • Aklan, N. A., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008). Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 21–41.
  • Albayrak, Ş. G. (2022). Geleneksel İktisattan Davranışsal İktisada: Tüketici Karar ve Tercihleri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 48, 159–170.
  • Amato, J. D., & Laubach, T. (2003). Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy. European Economic Review, 47(5), 791–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00270-2
  • Anderson, R. D. J., Becker, R., & Osborn, D. R. (2010). Heterogeneity in Consumers ’ Learning to Forecast Inflation (Economic Research).
  • Anufriev, M., & Hommes, C. (2012). Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments. 4(4), 35–64.
  • Assenza, T., Bao, T., Hommes, C., & Massaro, D. (2014). Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. Research in Experimental Economics, 17(320278), 11–70. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-230620140000017002
  • Basılgan, M. (2021). İktisadi Psikoloji II. Divan Kitabevi.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech, At the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Bonham, C. S., & Cohen, R. H. (2001). To aggregate, pool, or neither: Testing the rational-expectations hypothesis using survey data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(3), 278–291. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500101681019936
  • Brada, J. C., Kubíček, J., Kutan, A. M., & Tomšík, V. (2015). Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics. Eastern European Economics, 53(5), 357–376. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1089733
  • Branch, W. A. (2004). The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. The Economic Journal, 114, 592–621.
  • Branch, W. A. (2007). Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(1), 245–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.11.002
  • Bräuning, C., & van der Cruijsen, C. (2019). Learning dynamics in the formation of European inflation expectations. Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 122–135. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2553
  • Brito, S., Carriere-Swallow, Y., & Gruss, B. (2018). Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 18, Issue 24). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339718.001
  • Bryan, M. F., & Venkatu, G. (2001). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women. November 2001, 0–3.
  • Bryan, M., & Venkatu, G. (2001). The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys. In Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Commentary Research Department.
  • Bullard, J. (2016). Inflation Expectations Are Important to Central Bankers, Too. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org
  • Calabria M. A. (2016). Behavioral Economics and FED Policymaking. Cato Journal, 36(3), 573–587.
  • Camerer, C. F. (1999). Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(19), 10575–10577.
  • Capistrán, C., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 113–134.
  • Carroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 269–298.
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197–232.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018). The formation of expectations, inflation, and the Phillips curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 56, 1447–1491. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171300
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
  • Croushore, D. (2008). An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data. In Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1677
  • Curtin, R. (2005). Inflation Expectations: Theoretical Models and Empirical Tests. Ocean Modelling, 22(3), 1361–1369.
  • Curtin, R. T. (2022). A New Theory of Expectations. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 0123456789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-022-00074-w
  • D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., & Weber, M. (2022). What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations? In National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series (29825). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4056779
  • D’Amico, S., & Orphanides, A. (2008). Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting. In Finance and Economics Discussion Series (Issue 56). https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2008.56
  • De Grauwe, P. (2012). Lectures on behavioral macroeconomics. In Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics (Issue November). https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcmxp1g
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  • Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S., & Fratzscher, M. (2012). The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(3), 1018–1052.
  • Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., & Timmermann, A. (2005). BIASES IN MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: IRRATIONALITY OR ASYMMETRIC LOSS? (CAMA Working Paper Series).
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Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Kaynakça

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  • Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S., & Fratzscher, M. (2012). The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(3), 1018–1052.
  • Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., & Timmermann, A. (2005). BIASES IN MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: IRRATIONALITY OR ASYMMETRIC LOSS? (CAMA Working Paper Series).
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  • Guse, E. A. (2005). Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29(10), 1623–1642.
  • Hey, J. D. (1994). Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...? Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 25(3), 329–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(94)90104-X
  • Holden, S., & Driscoll, J. C. (2014). Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 133–147.
  • Hommes, C. (2011). The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2010.10.003
  • Jitmaneeroj, B., Lamla, M. J., & Wood, A. (2018). The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement. In KOF Working Papers (No. 445). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.10.002
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185, 1124–1231.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the Psychology of Prediction. In Daniel & P. S. and A. T. Kahneman (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 48–68). Cambridge University Press.
  • Kandel, E., & Pearson D., N. (1995). Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), 831–872.
  • Kara, H., & Küçük-Tuǧer, H. (2010). Inflation expectations in Turkey: Learning to be rational. Applied Economics, 42(21), 2725–2742. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964559
  • Kohn, D. L. (2006). Monetary policy and uncertainty. Fourth Conference of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, 1–6.
  • Krusell, P., & Smith, A. A. (1996). Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium a quantitative analysis. In Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 20, Issue 4). https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00863-2
  • Lahırı, K., & Sheng, X. (2010). Measurıng Forecast Uncertaınty By Dısagreement: The Mıssıng Lınk. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(4), 514–538.
  • Laibson, D., & List, J. A. (2015). Principles of (behavioral) economics. American Economic Review, 105(5), 385–390. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151047
  • Lamla, M. J., & Maag, T. (2012). The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(7), 1325–1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x
  • Lłyziak, T. (2013). Formation of inflation expectations by different economic agents. Eastern European Economics, 51(6), 5–33. https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775510601
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  • Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2002). Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1295–1328. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935034
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Formation of Inflation Expectations: An Analysis in terms of Behavioral Economics

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Since inflation expectations are an important determinant of real inflation, they play an important role in the execution of monetary policy. Central banks control the inflation expectations of economic agents and try to make them compatible with the inflation target. Regarding inflation expectations, the basic paradigm in mainstream economics is the rational expectations hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, economic units use all available information to create their expectations and make optimal forecasts for inflation. While making inflation forecasts based on rational expectations, it is accepted that the information is homogeneously distributed and the psychological factors limiting this information are the same. However, studies in the field of behavioral economics have criticized the rational expectations hypothesis based on the importance of incomplete information and uncertainty surrounding inflation forecasts, and the fact that beliefs about inflation can change over time, thus heterogeneity. As a result of these criticisms, alternative behavioral approaches have been developed to explain the formation of inflation expectations. The most important of these approaches are the sticky information model, the rational inattention approach, the epidemiological expectations approach, and the Bayesian learning model. In this context, the main purpose of the study is to reveal, on the basis of theoretical and empirical literature, how inflation expectations occur in real life, unlike rational expectations, in the context of behavioral economics. In the study, it is concluded that inflation expectations are formed as a result of heterogeneity in individual behaviors, contrary to the rational expectations hypothesis, and that behavioral economics makes a significant contribution to central banks both in maintaining price stability and in pursuing an effective monetary policy by explaining the formation of inflation expectations with different psychological approaches. The study revealed the deficiencies in the models that explain inflation expectations according to the rational expectations approach and revealed the importance of behavioral approaches in eliminating this deficiency.

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  • Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. In The Return of Monetary Policy Rules (pp. 1–58). Princeton University Press.
  • Yiğit, A. G. (2018). Davranışsal İktisadın Anlaşılmasına Yönelik Bir Literatür Taraması. Mcbü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2).
Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abel, J., Rıch, R., Song, J., & Tracy, J. (2016). The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 31, 533–550. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
  • Agliari, A., Massaro, D., Pecora, N., & Spelta, A. (2017). Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(7), 1587–1619. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12425
  • Akdere, Ç., & Büyükboyacı, M. (2018). Davranışsal İktisat ve Sınırlı Rasyonellik Varsayımı. In İktisatta Davranışsal Yaklaşımlar (2. Baskı, pp. 107–139). Imge Kitabevi.
  • Akerlof, G. A. (2002). Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior. The American Economic Review, 92(3), 411–433.
  • Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton University Press.
  • Aklan, N. A., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008). Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 21–41.
  • Albayrak, Ş. G. (2022). Geleneksel İktisattan Davranışsal İktisada: Tüketici Karar ve Tercihleri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 48, 159–170.
  • Amato, J. D., & Laubach, T. (2003). Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy. European Economic Review, 47(5), 791–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00270-2
  • Anderson, R. D. J., Becker, R., & Osborn, D. R. (2010). Heterogeneity in Consumers ’ Learning to Forecast Inflation (Economic Research).
  • Anufriev, M., & Hommes, C. (2012). Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments. 4(4), 35–64.
  • Assenza, T., Bao, T., Hommes, C., & Massaro, D. (2014). Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. Research in Experimental Economics, 17(320278), 11–70. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-230620140000017002
  • Basılgan, M. (2021). İktisadi Psikoloji II. Divan Kitabevi.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech, At the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Bonham, C. S., & Cohen, R. H. (2001). To aggregate, pool, or neither: Testing the rational-expectations hypothesis using survey data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(3), 278–291. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500101681019936
  • Brada, J. C., Kubíček, J., Kutan, A. M., & Tomšík, V. (2015). Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics. Eastern European Economics, 53(5), 357–376. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1089733
  • Branch, W. A. (2004). The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. The Economic Journal, 114, 592–621.
  • Branch, W. A. (2007). Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(1), 245–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.11.002
  • Bräuning, C., & van der Cruijsen, C. (2019). Learning dynamics in the formation of European inflation expectations. Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 122–135. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2553
  • Brito, S., Carriere-Swallow, Y., & Gruss, B. (2018). Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 18, Issue 24). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339718.001
  • Bryan, M. F., & Venkatu, G. (2001). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women. November 2001, 0–3.
  • Bryan, M., & Venkatu, G. (2001). The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys. In Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Commentary Research Department.
  • Bullard, J. (2016). Inflation Expectations Are Important to Central Bankers, Too. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org
  • Calabria M. A. (2016). Behavioral Economics and FED Policymaking. Cato Journal, 36(3), 573–587.
  • Camerer, C. F. (1999). Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(19), 10575–10577.
  • Capistrán, C., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 113–134.
  • Carroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 269–298.
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197–232.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018). The formation of expectations, inflation, and the Phillips curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 56, 1447–1491. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171300
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
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  • Curtin, R. T. (2022). A New Theory of Expectations. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 0123456789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-022-00074-w
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  • Weber, C. E. (2002). Intertemporal non-separability and ‘“ rule of thumb ”’ consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 293–308.
  • Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. In The Return of Monetary Policy Rules (pp. 1–58). Princeton University Press.
  • Yiğit, A. G. (2018). Davranışsal İktisadın Anlaşılmasına Yönelik Bir Literatür Taraması. Mcbü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2).
Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abel, J., Rıch, R., Song, J., & Tracy, J. (2016). The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 31, 533–550. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
  • Agliari, A., Massaro, D., Pecora, N., & Spelta, A. (2017). Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(7), 1587–1619. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12425
  • Akdere, Ç., & Büyükboyacı, M. (2018). Davranışsal İktisat ve Sınırlı Rasyonellik Varsayımı. In İktisatta Davranışsal Yaklaşımlar (2. Baskı, pp. 107–139). Imge Kitabevi.
  • Akerlof, G. A. (2002). Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior. The American Economic Review, 92(3), 411–433.
  • Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton University Press.
  • Aklan, N. A., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008). Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 21–41.
  • Albayrak, Ş. G. (2022). Geleneksel İktisattan Davranışsal İktisada: Tüketici Karar ve Tercihleri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 48, 159–170.
  • Amato, J. D., & Laubach, T. (2003). Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy. European Economic Review, 47(5), 791–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00270-2
  • Anderson, R. D. J., Becker, R., & Osborn, D. R. (2010). Heterogeneity in Consumers ’ Learning to Forecast Inflation (Economic Research).
  • Anufriev, M., & Hommes, C. (2012). Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments. 4(4), 35–64.
  • Assenza, T., Bao, T., Hommes, C., & Massaro, D. (2014). Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. Research in Experimental Economics, 17(320278), 11–70. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-230620140000017002
  • Basılgan, M. (2021). İktisadi Psikoloji II. Divan Kitabevi.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech, At the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Bonham, C. S., & Cohen, R. H. (2001). To aggregate, pool, or neither: Testing the rational-expectations hypothesis using survey data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(3), 278–291. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500101681019936
  • Brada, J. C., Kubíček, J., Kutan, A. M., & Tomšík, V. (2015). Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics. Eastern European Economics, 53(5), 357–376. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1089733
  • Branch, W. A. (2004). The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. The Economic Journal, 114, 592–621.
  • Branch, W. A. (2007). Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(1), 245–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.11.002
  • Bräuning, C., & van der Cruijsen, C. (2019). Learning dynamics in the formation of European inflation expectations. Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 122–135. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2553
  • Brito, S., Carriere-Swallow, Y., & Gruss, B. (2018). Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 18, Issue 24). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339718.001
  • Bryan, M. F., & Venkatu, G. (2001). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women. November 2001, 0–3.
  • Bryan, M., & Venkatu, G. (2001). The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys. In Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Commentary Research Department.
  • Bullard, J. (2016). Inflation Expectations Are Important to Central Bankers, Too. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org
  • Calabria M. A. (2016). Behavioral Economics and FED Policymaking. Cato Journal, 36(3), 573–587.
  • Camerer, C. F. (1999). Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(19), 10575–10577.
  • Capistrán, C., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 113–134.
  • Carroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 269–298.
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197–232.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018). The formation of expectations, inflation, and the Phillips curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 56, 1447–1491. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171300
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
  • Croushore, D. (2008). An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data. In Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1677
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Enflasyon Bekleyişlerinin Oluşumu: Davranışsal İktisat Açısından Bir Analiz

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Öz

Enflasyon bekleyişleri gerçek enflasyonun önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğundan para politikasının yürütülmesinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Merkez bankaları, iktisadi birimlerin enflasyon bekleyişlerini kontrol ederek enflasyon hedefiyle uyumlu olması için çabalamaktadır. Bu uyumun gerçekleşmesi durumunda merkez bankaları enflasyondaki dalgalanmaları daha rahat yönetebilme olanağına sahip olmakta ve enflasyonu kontrol etmede daha başarılı sonuçlar elde etmektedirler. Enflasyon bekleyişleriyle ilgili olarak ana akım iktisatta temel paradigma rasyonel bekleyişler hipotezidir. Bu hipoteze göre iktisadi birimler var olan tüm bilgiden yararlanarak bekleyişlerini oluşturmakta ve enflasyon konusunda optimal tahminlerde bulunmaktadırlar. Rasyonel bekleyişlere dayalı olarak enflasyon tahminleri yapılırken üstelik bilginin homojen dağıldığı ve bu bilgiyi sınırlayan psikolojik faktörlerin de aynı olduğu kabul edilmektedir. Fakat davranışsal iktisat alanında yapılan çalışmalar, enflasyon tahminlerini çevreleyen eksik bilginin ve belirsizliğin önemini ve enflasyon konusunda tutulan inançların zamanla değişebilmesini, dolayısıyla heterojenliği, temel alarak rasyonel bekleyişler hipotezine eleştiriler getirmişlerdir. Bu eleştirilerin sonucunda enflasyon bekleyişlerinin oluşumunu açıklamada alternatif davranışsal yaklaşımlar geliştirilmiştir. Bu yaklaşımların en önemlileri yapışkan bilgi modeli, rasyonel dikkatsizlik yaklaşımı, epidemiyolojik bekleyişler modeli ve Bayesyen öğrenme modelidir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın temel amacı teorik ve ampirik literatür temelinde enflasyon bekleyişlerinin gerçek yaşamda, rasyonel bekleyişlerden farklı olarak, nasıl oluştuğunu davranışsal iktisat bağlamında ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmada enflasyon bekleyişlerinin, bireysel davranışlardaki heterojenliğin sonucu olarak, rasyonel bekleyişler hipotezine aykırı biçimde oluştuğu, davranışsal iktisadın enflasyon bekleyişlerinin oluşumunu farklı psikolojik yaklaşımlar ile açıklayarak merkez bankalarına hem fiyat istikrarını sağlamada hem de etkin bir para politikası izlemede önemli bir katkı sağladığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma enflasyon bekleyişlerini rasyonel bekleyişler yaklaşımına göre açıklayan modellerdeki eksikliği ortaya koyarak bu eksikliği gidermede davranışsal yaklaşımların önemini ortaya koymuştur.

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  • Hommes, C. (2011). The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2010.10.003
  • Jitmaneeroj, B., Lamla, M. J., & Wood, A. (2018). The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement. In KOF Working Papers (No. 445). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.10.002
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  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the Psychology of Prediction. In Daniel & P. S. and A. T. Kahneman (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 48–68). Cambridge University Press.
  • Kandel, E., & Pearson D., N. (1995). Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), 831–872.
  • Kara, H., & Küçük-Tuǧer, H. (2010). Inflation expectations in Turkey: Learning to be rational. Applied Economics, 42(21), 2725–2742. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964559
  • Kohn, D. L. (2006). Monetary policy and uncertainty. Fourth Conference of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, 1–6.
  • Krusell, P., & Smith, A. A. (1996). Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium a quantitative analysis. In Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 20, Issue 4). https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00863-2
  • Lahırı, K., & Sheng, X. (2010). Measurıng Forecast Uncertaınty By Dısagreement: The Mıssıng Lınk. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(4), 514–538.
  • Laibson, D., & List, J. A. (2015). Principles of (behavioral) economics. American Economic Review, 105(5), 385–390. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151047
  • Lamla, M. J., & Maag, T. (2012). The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(7), 1325–1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x
  • Lłyziak, T. (2013). Formation of inflation expectations by different economic agents. Eastern European Economics, 51(6), 5–33. https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775510601
  • Madeira, C., & Zafar, B. (2015). Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(5), 867–896. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12230
  • Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2002). Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1295–1328. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935034
  • Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2006). Pervasive Stickiness. American Economic Association, 96(2), 164–169. https://www.jstor.org/stable/30034634 Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R., & Wolfers, J. (2003). Disagreement about inflation expectations. In NBER Macroeconomics Annual (Vol. 18, Issue July). https://doi.org/10.1086/ma.18.3585256
  • Menz, J.-O., & Poppitz, P. (2013). Households’ Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany. In Discussion Paper (No. 27). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2796919
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  • Mullainathan, S., & Thaler, R. (2000). Behavioral Economics. NBER Working Paper No. 7948. October 2000.
  • Muth, J. (1961). Rational Expectations and The Theory of Price Movements. Econometrica, 29(3), 315–335.
  • Odria, L. R. M., & Rodriguez, G. (2013). Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 44, 59–67.
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  • Orphanides, A., & Williams, J. C. (2003). Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy (No. 9884; NBER Working Paper Series).
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  • Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, E. (2008). Asymmetries in Inflation Expectations across Sociodemographic groups. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, E. (2010). Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 75(3), 426–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.012
  • Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, E. (2013). News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(6), 1045–1067.
  • Pfajfar, D., & Žakelj, B. (2014). Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 44, 147–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.04.012
  • Ranyard, R., Del Missier, F., Bonini, N., Duxbury, D., & Summers, B. (2008). Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4), 378–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2008.07.002
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  • Rich, R., & Tracy, J. (2009). The Relationship Among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertatinty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 200–207.
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  • Sarıkaya, S., & Afşar, K. E. (2022). Nöroiktisat Çerçevesinde İktisatta Multidisiplinerlik Mümkün mü? İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(3), 630–654.
  • Sijabat, R. (2018). Understanding Behavioral Economics: A Narrative Perspective. Asian Development Policy Review, 6(2), 77–87. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2018.62.77.87
  • Siklos, P. L. (2013). Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation. Journal of International Economics, 90(1), 218–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.09.005
  • Sill, K. (2012). Measuring Economic Uncertainty Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters. In Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Vol. Q4). www.philadelphiafed.org
  • Sims, C. A. (2003). Implications of rational inattention. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 665–690. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00029-1
  • Sims, C. A. (2009). Inflation Expectations, Uncertatinty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy. In J. Fuhrer, Y. K. Kodrzycki, J. S. Little, & G. P. Olivei (Eds.), Understanding Inflation of the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective. MIT Press.
  • Singh, G. K. (2020). Expectations formation of household inflation expectations in India (No. 2020-12–02; Research & Publications).
  • Sorić, P., & Čižmešija, M. (2013). Price sentiment of Croatian consumers: The upward bias of collective memories. Drustvena Istrazivanja, 22(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.5559/di.22.1.01
  • Wakker, P., & Tversky, A. (1993). An axiomatization of cumulative prospect theory. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7(2), 147–175. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01065812
  • Weber, C. E. (2002). Intertemporal non-separability and ‘“ rule of thumb ”’ consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 293–308.
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  • Yiğit, A. G. (2018). Davranışsal İktisadın Anlaşılmasına Yönelik Bir Literatür Taraması. Mcbü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2).
Toplam 102 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Salih Yıldırım 0000-0003-1237-8214

Müslüm Basılgan 0000-0001-8307-6315

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Haziran 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Yıldırım, S., & Basılgan, M. (2023). Enflasyon Bekleyişlerinin Oluşumu: Davranışsal İktisat Açısından Bir Analiz. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 1095-1121. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246
İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.